Coffee futures climb as Hormuz closure disrupts shipping

Coffee futures rose today after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global shipping and tightened supply lines. On ICE, May arabica gained 2.86% to a 1.5-month high, and May robusta added 0.55% to a 1.5-week high.

Higher freight, insurance, and fuel costs, along with delays, have complicated logistics for importers and roasters. Those pressures have constrained near-term availability.

Stock signals diverged. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-month low of 4,257 lots. ICE-monitored arabica inventories increased to a 5.75-month high of 585,621 bags on Wednesday.

Weather eased crop worries earlier in the week. On Monday, arabica touched a two-week low and May robusta set a contract low after heavy rain in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported 57.7 millimeters of rain last week in Minas Gerais, equal to 139% of the historical average.

Brazil’s export pace slowed in February. Data from Cecafe show green coffee shipments at 2.3 million bags, down 27% from a year earlier. Figures from the Trade Ministry put overall February coffee exports at 142,000 metric tons, a decline of 17.4% year over year.

Shipments from Vietnam remained firm. Vietnam’s statistics office estimated coffee exports at 366,000 metric tons in January and February 2026, up 14% from a year earlier. For full-year 2025, exports reached 1.58 million metric tons, an increase of 17.5%. Production in 2025/26 is projected at 1.76 million metric tons, or about 29.4 million bags, up 6%.

Outlooks point to larger supply in the next cycle. StoneX lifted its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to a record 75.3 million bags, from 70.7 million in November. Brazil’s crop agency Conab projects 2026 production at 66.2 million bags, up 17.2% year over year, with arabica at 44.1 million and robusta at 22.1 million. Rabobank projects global output in 2026/27 at 180 million bags, about 8 million above the prior season.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, in a Dec. 18 update, projected 2025/26 world production at a record 178.848 million bags. The breakdown shows arabica at 95.515 million bags, down 4.7% year over year, and robusta at 83.333 million, up 10.9%. The outlook puts Brazil at 63 million bags, 3.1% lower year over year, and Vietnam at 30.8 million bags, up 6.2%. Ending stocks are estimated at 20.148 million bags, down 5.4% from 2024/25.

Earlier in the year, futures fell on expectations for a large Brazilian harvest. Arabica hit a 16-month low on Feb. 24, and robusta reached a 7.25-month low on Feb. 23. ICO data show global exports for the current October–September marketing year at 138.658 million bags, down 0.3% from a year earlier.