World Cup may add $5-10B to prediction-market volume

Analysts at Bernstein estimate the 2026 FIFA World Cup, held across North America in June and July with 48 teams and 104 matches, could add $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer volume and generate more than $3 billion in incremental handle during the tournament window. The expanded format increases available betting inventory by roughly 60% versus a standard World Cup.

Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, interest-rate decisions, sports results and popular culture. Contract prices reflect the market's implied probability of an outcome.

The research note describes the World Cup as a large demand test for the sector after a breakout year in 2024 when blockchain-based platforms drew large flows on the U.S. presidential race. The note frames prediction markets as complementary to traditional sportsbooks and describes the sector as “TikTok, not Napster.”

Bernstein identifies DraftKings as a likely beneficiary. The firm's Predicitions product is the only legal sports product DraftKings offers in California, Texas and Florida, states that together account for about 52% of the U.S. Hispanic population. Bernstein projects the World Cup could add roughly 650,000 funded Predictions accounts for DraftKings during the tournament, helping the company reach about 2 million Predictions accounts by the end of 2026. The note also cites DraftKings' Spanish-language app and a media relationship with Telemundo as distribution channels into Hispanic audiences.

Robinhood plans a commercial launch timed to the World Cup with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse run through a joint venture with Susquehanna. Owning exchange infrastructure allows the firm to capture exchange fees and reduce customer costs, according to the note. Bernstein reports about 12 billion event contracts traded on Robinhood in 2025 and roughly 16 billion traded in 2026 year-to-date as of May. At the end of Q1 2026, prediction markets on the platform were running at an annualized revenue rate of $415 million; Bernstein projects roughly $586 million by year-end, a 286% year-over-year increase and about 17% of Robinhood's transaction-based revenue.

Coinbase reached more than $100 million in annualized prediction-market revenue in March 2026, less than two months after launching its product. Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts through a partnership with Kalshi as part of an effort to attract non-crypto users and diversify revenue beyond crypto trading.

Market-level data in Bernstein's note show the category handled about $31.2 billion in May. Kalshi reported $17.9 billion in volume that month, about 57% market share, while Polymarket's global volumes declined to $7.1 billion, down about 14.8% month-over-month. Bernstein projects total prediction-market volumes could rise from roughly $51 billion in 2025 to about $240 billion in 2026 and reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030 at an estimated compound annual growth rate near 80%. Corresponding industry revenue is forecast to increase from about $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026 and $10.8 billion by 2030.

The note notes that prediction markets now cover a wider set of topics beyond sports, including political events, macroeconomic indicators, interest rates and popular culture.