Brent tops $104 as Mideast tensions rise; Trump warns on Hormuz

Oil prices stayed elevated in early Monday trade, extending the move flagged earlier in Qatar’s $150 oil warning, as the market tracked new risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Investor attention also turned to President Donald Trump’s warning that Washington could respond if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed.

Oil futures reopened around 2200 GMT on Sunday, lifting the global benchmark to $106 early Monday before easing to a little over $104.

On Friday, Trump described U.S. strikes that targeted Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf, and noted the operation avoided damage to oil infrastructure. He warned he would revisit that decision if Iran or others interfere with the free and safe passage of vessels through Hormuz.

Kharg Island is where most of Iran’s crude exports are loaded. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway used by a large share of seaborne oil shipments from the Gulf.

Hostilities have escalated since Feb. 28, when Israel and the United States carried out joint strikes in Iran. Iran has since launched drone and missile attacks aimed at targets in Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Gulf countries that host U.S. military assets.

The latest two-week oil rally is already one of the largest on record. Analyst Charlie Bilello said the roughly 47% surge in March 2026 ranks as the second-biggest two-week jump in oil prices in historical data, behind only the 55% rebound in May 2020 after the pandemic-era collapse. Other major spikes in his ranking include January 2009 at 39%, August 1986 at 37%, and August 1990 at 31%, when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

The market move is unfolding alongside a rapidly rising war bill. Estimates cited around the conflict showed costs reaching about $11.3 billion by day six and $16.5 billion by day 12, underscoring how quickly the financial burden is building. If higher oil prices persist and feed into a broader fuel shock, the economic fallout could become a political liability for Trump and Republicans heading into the midterm cycle, especially if voters begin to connect higher costs at the pump with the expanding price of the war.

Brent’s early-week jump followed the weekend restart of trading and new regional developments. Market participants are watching for statements from Washington and Tehran, the scope of any additional strikes, and any reports of disruptions to tanker traffic through Hormuz.