Lawmakers unveil DEATH BETS Act to prohibit bets on war outcomes

Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) introduced the DEATH BETS Act in Congress to bar prediction market contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or an individual’s death, citing national security and public safety risks.

The bicameral bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to add an explicit prohibition on event contracts that pay out based on violent events or a person’s death. The measure is designed to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission clearer authority to block, deter, and enforce against such offerings, including those targeting U.S. users from offshore platforms.

Interest in prediction markets has expanded, with more traders wagering on outcomes that include elections and international crises. With that growth, policymakers have raised concerns that people with access to classified or other nonpublic information could profit from markets tied to conflict and terrorism.

Levin pointed to trading activity he described as exceeding $500 million on contracts linked to the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran, highlighting the scale of war-related wagers. He has previously raised concerns about offshore “death contracts,” including those tied to the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Schiff warned that allowing bets on conflicts and casualties where insiders can exploit protected intelligence creates security risks. He argued that enabling such wagers “puts national security at risk and incentivizes violence,” and called for a broad statutory prohibition rather than case-by-case actions.

Regulatory attention has been increasing. The CFTC, which oversees event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, has wrestled with how to treat wagers on political and geopolitical events and has signaled interest in revisiting federal rules for prediction platforms.

Platforms have faced scrutiny for listing contracts related to active fighting in the Middle East, prompting calls from lawmakers to limit markets that track casualties or military actions. Separately, Sen. Chris Murphy said he is developing legislation to “ban corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets, where insiders who know the outcome (especially in government) can rig the game to favor certain bets.”

Backers of stricter limits contend that a statutory ban would remove ambiguity and prevent the launch of new products tied to violent events. Writing the prohibition into the Commodity Exchange Act would, they argue, give the CFTC a clearer mandate to stop or prosecute such contracts, including those offered by overseas operators that solicit U.S. participants.