Oil rises before US-Iran talks; Ceasefire eases risk

Markets stalled on Thursday ahead of a second round of US-Iran talks, with crude oil jumping on unclear negotiation signals before trimming gains after an immediate Israel-Lebanon ceasefire eased near-term geopolitical risk.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose roughly 4% intraday after traders reacted to a lack of clear headlines about the expected US-Iran talks. Oil pared gains once news arrived that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire taking effect immediately, which reduced some risk premiums in crude.

US equity indexes closed with modest gains, led by technology stocks, and the Nasdaq printed fresh record levels. Trading lacked broad sector cohesion, with sharp, idiosyncratic moves in individual names rather than a coordinated sector rally. Healthcare stocks remained under pressure in parts of the session.

Corporate results added to market unevenness. Netflix beat revenue expectations for the quarter but issued guidance that market participants found unclear, and the stock fell in after-hours trading. The financial sector's reporting week was set to conclude Friday, April 17.

Economic data were light. The only notable release was a small miss in Australian employment. Several Federal Reserve officials spoke during the day; New York Fed President John Williams warned central bankers face communication challenges, saying they are “confused and unsure of what to communicate” given current uncertainty.

Currency markets were mostly muted. The Canadian dollar strengthened alongside the oil rebound. Market participants pointed to increased orders away from the Gulf as a factor that could support the Canadian dollar over a longer horizon even if oil corrects from recent levels.

Traders described the session as a partial breather after sharp moves in risk assets earlier in the week. With few scheduled data releases and the prospect of renewed diplomatic developments over the weekend, market participants prepared for possible volatility into the close and ahead of the talks.

Oil remains sensitive to Middle East negotiations and military tensions. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removed an immediate flashpoint but left open questions about Lebanon's ability to disarm Hezbollah and the potential for renewed conflict. Officials indicated the US-Iran talks would resume over the weekend.