Gold rally stalls near 20- and 50-day moving averages

On May 6 spot gold (XAU/USD) rose about 3% intraday but the advance stalled near the downward-sloping 20- and 50-day moving averages. Prices failed to clear the short-term resistance around 4,775 and retreated as 10-year US Treasury real yields remained above 1.85%.

The rebound followed reports of easing tensions between the United States and Iran that briefly raised expectations for lower oil prices and a possible Federal Reserve shift toward rate cuts. Those developments supported demand for gold during the session.

OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong wrote that the rally did not break the resistance area around the moving averages and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline. Hourly momentum indicators showed bearish divergence before the rally eased, and Wong described the near-term pattern as range-bound.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield traded sideways this week above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages and held above an intermediate support near 1.85%. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and tend to apply downward pressure on the metal.

Short-term support for spot gold sits near 4,645, with additional floors around 4,580 and a range support band at 4,524–4,486. On the upside, range resistance is in the 4,860–4,900 area based on mid-April highs. From a pre-conflict baseline of Feb. 27 to May 6, spot gold has fallen about 9.9% versus several major assets.

Analysts cite Treasury real yields, Federal Reserve communications and oil prices as factors to watch for signals that could influence gold’s next directional move.