Figure reaches $1B monthly loan milestone; Bernstein maintains $67 target

Bernstein reaffirmed its $67 price target and an outperform rating on Figure Technology Solutions after the company reported preliminary first-quarter loan originations of $2.9 billion. Figure’s shares closed at $32.30 on April 6, implying about 107% upside to the target.

A Bernstein note cited by The Block on April 7 said analysts led by Gautam Chhugani valued Figure at 25x estimated 2027 EBITDA, while a March 30 analyst update showed Bernstein had already cut its price target to $67 from $72.

March was Figure’s first month with more than $1 billion in loan volume. Consumer loan volume reached about $1.2 billion, up 33% from February. The note linked the milestone to the performance of Figure’s tokenized credit marketplace.

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First-quarter originations of $2.9 billion rose 7% from the prior quarter and 113% from a year earlier. The note flagged that the first quarter is typically a slow period for home equity lines of credit. Growth during the period reflected the reach of Figure’s partner network, which includes more than 300 active partners, and traction in newer loan categories.

Based on recent trends, Figure is tracking roughly $12 billion in annualized loan volumes, which implies 39% year-over-year growth for calendar 2025, per the note. The company did not provide a product-level breakdown in its monthly update.

Bernstein estimated that first-lien loans, which carry lower take rates than standard HELOCs, continued to expand and accounted for 19% of volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025. For 2026, the forecast calls for $12.8 billion of originations, a 53% year-over-year increase, with new loan categories contributing $1.7 billion, or 13% of total volumes, compared with about 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The mix of distribution is also shifting. The Connect marketplace is projected to account for 56% of total volumes by the end of 2026, up from 46% in 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Connect volume reached 54% of the Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, up from 46% in the prior quarter.

Bernstein’s earnings outlook calls for reported EPS of $0.54 in 2025, $0.98 in 2026, and $1.52 in 2027. Listed risks include the potential for lower interest rates to increase mortgage refinancing competition and reduce HELOC demand, and possible delays in expanding into non-HELOC categories that could affect a projected 20% volume contribution from those segments by 2027.

Bernstein and its affiliates disclosed recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and indicated they expect to seek additional compensation.