Bernstein: Bitcoin’s store-of-value case holds after ETF outflows

Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, said in a client note on Monday that Bitcoin’s long-term store-of-value thesis remains intact despite $2.6 billion of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026. The firm reported roughly $12 billion of combined net inflows from ETFs and corporate treasuries year-to-date, and said corporate treasury purchases have been the primary source of demand.

The note contrasted 2026 flows with about $60 billion of inflows in 2025 and observed a slowdown in the capital allocation cycle and weaker retail momentum this year. “In a market completely dominated by retail's obsession with AI, mere $2.6 billion outflows YTD are almost encouraging,” the analysts wrote. They added, “Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against it and does not take away from the long term ‘store of value' thesis, in our view.”

Bitcoin traded above $63,000 early Monday, up roughly 1% over 24 hours, and remains around 50% below its record high of $126,000 set in October. The token fell to its weakest level in more than two months over the past week amid continued spot ETF outflows, a reported $2.5 million bitcoin sale by Strategy, and renewed macro uncertainty linked to escalating U.S.–Iran tensions.

Bernstein highlighted an expanding institutional base for Bitcoin across wealth management platforms, broker-dealers, private banks, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. The note cited on-chain data showing about 61% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year, which Bernstein presented as evidence of longer-term holding behavior.

The analysts said corporate treasury accumulation has offset ETF liquidations, pointing to Strategy as a major corporate buyer. Bernstein reported Strategy raised $7.5 billion through its STRC preferred product in 2026 to fund the acquisition of roughly 100,000 BTC. The firm calculated Strategy’s roughly $53 billion bitcoin position covers the STRC’s $1.2 billion annual cash dividend by more than 30 times.

Bernstein also observed that capital has shifted toward digital-asset infrastructure tied to tokenization of real-world assets. The note pointed to platforms such as Hyperliquid as showing elevated volume in tokenized equities and commodities markets, reflecting investor activity in infrastructure that links traditional assets with blockchain-based trading and settlement.

The note disclosed that Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein also noted potential conflicts related to investment banking services the firm or its affiliates may provide to Strategy.