Bernstein Sees 71% Upside for Coinbase Stock

Bernstein maintained an outperform rating and a $330 price target on Coinbase after the company reported first-quarter results. The target implies about 71% upside from Coinbase’s Thursday closing price of $192.96, the analysts wrote in a client note released Friday. The research team was led by Gautam Chhugani.

Coinbase reported $1.41 billion in revenue for the quarter, about 5% below estimates, and adjusted EBITDA of $303 million, roughly 26% under expectations. The company posted a net loss of $394.1 million, which included $482 million in unrealized losses from its crypto investment portfolio.

Bernstein cited weaker crypto markets as a factor in lower trading activity and subscription revenue. Total crypto market capitalization and industry trading volumes both fell more than 20% from the prior quarter. Platform activity at Coinbase showed declines: total spot trading volume fell 25% quarter-over-quarter to $202 billion, retail trading volume dropped 36% to $36 billion, and monthly transacting users declined 10% to 8.2 million. At the same time, Coinbase reached an all-time high in crypto trading market share driven by gains across spot and derivatives trading.

The analysts highlighted revenue growth from businesses beyond spot trading. Retail derivatives are annualizing at more than $200 million, while institutional derivatives tied to Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit are annualizing above $250 million. Prediction markets exceeded a $100 million annualized revenue run rate in March and were identified as one of the company’s fastest-growing products.

Bernstein also pointed to growth in stablecoin and payments infrastructure centered on USDC and Coinbase’s Base layer. Base-based stablecoin transaction volume expanded tenfold year-over-year, and over 90% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume during the quarter occurred on an Ethereum Layer 2 network. The firm described Coinbase’s approach as a vertically integrated stack built around USDC, Base, payments APIs and the x402 protocol for agentic commerce.

The note identified possible upside from regulatory and industry developments, citing expected progress on the Clarity Act and recent White House comments about a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as possible catalysts for the company and the sector.

Operationally, Coinbase experienced an AWS-related disruption that briefly suspended order matching and moved markets into “Cancel Only” and auction modes; normal trading resumed later in the session. In pre-market trading on Friday, Coinbase shares were down about 2.7%.

The note disclosed that Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies and that certain Bernstein affiliates act as market makers or liquidity providers in Coinbase equity securities.