AMD jumps on AI ahead of earnings; Tech indicators flag pullback

Advanced Micro Devices shares climbed about 92% from a March low of $189.02 on March 9 to an intraday high of $362.79 on May 1. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the U.S. market close on May 5.

Consensus forecasts call for revenue of $9.8 billion to $9.9 billion, up about 33% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share near $1.29, roughly 34% higher than a year earlier. Market participants are focused on management’s forward guidance for AI GPU demand and hyperscaler adoption.

A market-research note by senior analyst Kelvin Wong wrote that the stock broke above the upper boundary of a long-running ascending channel on April 24 and that daily momentum indicators show overbought readings with a bearish RSI divergence. The note identified a key pivot at 380.20 and listed supports at 310.20 and 287.60 (near the 20-day moving average), with a deeper retracement target at 264.20 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the March low). Resistance clusters were cited at 421.94 and 452.43.

As of May 4, AMD was up about 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Russell 2000 (+12.7%), Nasdaq 100 (+9.5%), S&P 500 (+5.25%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%). Intel posted a larger year-to-date gain of roughly 159.6% over the same period.

Investors will monitor management commentary on AI GPU traction, inventory levels and hyperscaler buying patterns when guidance is released. Historically, AMD shares have declined after earnings beats when forward guidance disappointed.

During the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the stock fell about 5% from February 27 to the March 9 low before beginning the rally that produced the recent highs.