WTI near $95 as US-Iran standoff, Hormuz blockade tighten flows

WTI crude traded around $95 on Friday after a diplomatic standoff between the United States and Iran and a US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipments and pushed the WTI–Brent spread wider. The spread was about $11 a barrel, driven in part by rerouted cargoes bound for North American terminals.

US forces have blocked 34 tankers originating from Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, restricting flows from the Gulf, officials and market data show. Iran sent a delegation to Islamabad but has not confirmed formal talks with US representatives. Washington sent envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan as part of efforts to secure diplomatic engagement.

Betting markets showed falling odds for a peace deal by May 31, reflecting skepticism among some traders that negotiations will yield a rapid settlement. The International Energy Agency estimates an effective shortfall of roughly 13 million barrels per day compared with normal global flows, a figure market participants cite when assessing available supply.

WTI prices were volatile this week. The contract fell to about $83 last Friday before trending higher over three sessions and remaining below $100. Short-term technical indicators in market data show the 4-hour 200-period moving average near $96.82, with sellers active in the $98–$100 band but unable to force a sustained drop below that moving average.

Technical support and resistance levels tracked by analysts include immediate resistance in the $98–$100 area, followed by levels near $104 and $106–$108. Support levels noted on short-term charts include the 4-hour moving average near $96.82, then $93, $87–$90 and $82.80–$84, with lower historical supports around $78–$80 and $69–$70.

Elior Manier, a market analyst who follows geopolitical and technical drivers in energy markets, warned traders to prepare for volatile gaps when US trading resumes Monday and recommended careful use of stop orders.

Market participants are continuing to reposition holdings and reduce exposure to overnight risk ahead of the weekend. Alternative pipelines and routes are reopening slowly, and maritime enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect, keeping short-term supply and shipping uncertainty elevated.