WTI Falls Toward $90 After US-Iran Talks

WTI crude fell sharply after reports that the U.S. and Iran are negotiating a broad peace deal, slipping below $100 and falling about 13% over two sessions as sellers pushed prices toward $90. Traders stepped up selling on signs talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and on rising market odds for an agreement in the coming weeks.

The slide began yesterday when news of the negotiations triggered heavy selling; WTI lost about 8% that session and declined roughly 5% today. Benchmark contracts are down about 19% from the April 29 peak, trading below the $100 mark and testing the $90 area.

Prediction-market odds for a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30 rose to about 55% after remaining near 30% for a period, while odds for a deal by May 31 increased above 40%.

Traders referenced talks in which negotiators discuss steps to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global crude flows. Market participants noted that any formal agreement would need to be signed and ratified before it produced a sustained change in consumer fuel prices.

Technical analysts described the price action as a shift from the months-long upward trend driven by geopolitical tension to a rapid downward move. On the four-hour chart, WTI formed a lower-high pattern and breached a $93 pivot zone; a break and close below $90 on higher timeframes would be needed to confirm further downside. Shorter-term indicators showed oversold conditions on many intraday measures, contributing to a temporary stall in the selloff.

Market guidance pointed to levels traders are watching: as long as WTI remains below about $94, sellers retain control; sustained trading back above $95 would indicate more rangebound or rallying conditions toward roughly $103. A heavy-volume break below $90 would likely open support near $82 and the $78–$80 zone tied to last year’s highs.

Market participants flagged a high-profile meeting of major global leaders this week as a potential catalyst for sentiment and oil demand expectations. Near-term price direction will hinge on developments in the diplomatic talks and any formal announcements about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.