WTI Falls Below $100 as U.S.-Iran Talks Resume

WTI crude slipped below $100 on Monday after opening higher at about $105 on the Globex session and then retreating to roughly $98. The initial spike reflected a rise in geopolitical risk before profit-taking and short-selling drove the price back down.

Traders pushed WTI toward $105 after reports that an earlier round of U.S.-Iran negotiations had faltered and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz showed no improvement since the start of the truce. News that high-level U.S.-Iran talks will restart on Thursday reduced near-term escalation concerns and triggered selling that trimmed the market to the high-$90s.

Since the retracement, WTI has traded in a range between roughly $96 and $104. Market participants are awaiting Thursday’s closed-door sessions and related diplomatic updates, leaving short-term direction reliant on fresh headlines and chart levels.

A market analyst noted that recent daily candles are indecisive and that the daily Relative Strength Index is near the neutral 50 level. On the four-hour chart, WTI has breached the 50-period moving average for only the second time since the start of the war.

Technically, the $98–$100 area is acting as a key pivot. A clear break below $98 would point toward about $93 and a $93–$95 band, while a sustained move above $100 could target $106–$108 and higher psychological levels near $110, with 2022 and wartime highs in the $117–$120 zone farther out. Additional support is near $87–$90 around the four-hour 200-period moving average, with longer-term supports around $78–$80 and the pre-war $63.8–$64 area.

Intraday indicators show limited conviction. On the one-hour chart, the RSI has been rising toward overbought territory, which may confine upward moves to a narrow range unless new information alters sentiment. Volatility has eased from the earlier spike, and traders are watching both diplomatic developments and technical breakout points for clearer direction.

Separately, Israel-Lebanon talks are scheduled to begin soon; outcomes there could affect regional risk perceptions and oil flows. Until decisive diplomatic developments occur, market participants continue to monitor headlines and technical levels for trading cues.