WTI eyes breakout above $102.54 as Hormuz tensions tighten

West Texas Intermediate futures approached a breakout above $102.54 after expectations for renewed U.S.-Iran talks faded and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply.

Prediction market data showed the probability of shipping in the Strait returning to normal by the end of May fell to 12.5% on May 12 from 35.5% on May 7. The chance of normal traffic by the end of June declined to 37.5% from 60.5% over the same period. The shifts in market bets followed President Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s response to the latest U.S. proposal, removing near-term clarity on negotiations.

Price action has reflected the supply squeeze. From the pre-war baseline of Feb. 27 through May 8, WTI futures rose about 42%. A fragile ceasefire in place since April 8 has not restored full flows through the Hormuz chokepoint, and trading activity indicates constrained shipments.

Technical indicators show WTI trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Daily candlesticks recorded a hammer on May 7 and an impending Bullish Marubozu on May 12 after a retest of the 50-day average. Hourly momentum is positive with the RSI supported by an upward trendline. Key resistance levels are $102.54, $108.20 and $112.84. Short-term supports sit at $95.00, $90.50, $86.58 and $82.89.

Analysts monitoring order flow and technicals view the one- to three-day trajectory as higher while momentum stays above the moving averages and the hourly RSI remains constructive.

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored, physical crude supplies would remain tight and benchmark grades would sustain price premiums. Traders are watching diplomatic developments and on-the-ground shipping reports for signs of normalization.