WTI Below 20/50-Day Averages as US‑Iran Ceasefire Eases Risk

West Texas Intermediate crude fell below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages after a tentative 60-day US‑Iran ceasefire and reports that talks on Iran’s nuclear program could resume. The contract's intra-session decline in late May put May losses near 16%, its first negative month after four consecutive monthly gains.

WTI futures lost roughly 13% from May 1 to May 28 and were down about 16% intra-session at the time of reporting. Market observers identified the tentative extension of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as factors that reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices.

Technical indicators show WTI trading inside a minor descending channel formed since the May 20 high. The price has been below its 20- and 50-day moving averages since May 25. The hourly relative strength index remained under 50 and had not reached oversold readings below 30.

Analysts cited $95.10 as a key short-term resistance; a sustained move above that level would be required to shift the near-term outlook. Nearer-term upside levels include $97.40, $100.00, and $102.56, the latter marked by the May 22 high and the 61.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May decline. Downside targets include a $87.60 gap from April 20 and a support zone around $81.94–$85, anchored by the April 17 and March 11 lows and the lower boundary of the descending channel.

The analysis was prepared by Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, who combined technical and fundamental observations to outline a likely one- to three-day trajectory for WTI.