William Blair cuts Coinbase forecast; crypto downturn may bottom

In a recent analyst note, Chicago-based William Blair lowered near-term revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase, citing weaker trading activity and lower spot cryptocurrency prices.

The bank wrote that sustained declines in spot prices and reduced trading volumes have cut fee income and produced a softer outlook for transaction revenue.

William Blair revised its financial model to assume fewer active traders and smaller average trade sizes, which reduced its near-term revenue projections.

The firm described the crypto trading environment as difficult and noted that price and volume pressures are no longer accelerating, and wrote the downturn may be close to a trough.

William Blair wrote the outlook is conditional: if prices and trading volumes stabilize, revenue pressure on exchanges such as Coinbase could ease. The bank did not project a rapid rebound in trading activity or fee income.

Coinbase relies heavily on trading fees, so lower asset prices and subdued investor activity have reduced its revenue. The bank's forecast accounts for slower user growth and the possibility that some retail and institutional participants remain on the sidelines.

The broader crypto sector has faced strain since its highs in recent years, affecting exchanges, miners and lending platforms. Regulatory actions, macroeconomic conditions and episodic market volatility have contributed to periods of reduced liquidity and diminished trading depth, which weigh on exchange revenues.

William Blair's note provides an updated view for investors after months of weak crypto activity, lowering near-term expectations for Coinbase while noting that any end to the downturn depends on stabilization in asset prices and trading behavior.