Wage Rise and Oil Drop Keep USD/CAD Rangebound

Statistics Canada reported hourly wages up 4.7% year‑over‑year, the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.7% from 6.8%, and the economy added 14,100 net jobs for the month versus 15,000 expected. The monthly payroll gain followed a larger decline in the prior period.

Market pricing shows about 30 basis points of additional Bank of Canada tightening priced for the remainder of the year. The central bank has said future policy moves will depend on incoming data and developments that affect energy prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell after reports of a US‑Iran ceasefire removed an estimated 15% risk premium from prices. WTI traded near $70 a barrel, roughly 30% higher than early‑2026 levels. Traders noted that Canada’s status as a major oil producer and exporter supports demand for Canadian crude despite lower WTI.

Strained conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a market concern, with Iran retaining leverage over a key shipping chokepoint. The ceasefire reduced some near‑term geopolitical pressure on oil, while uncertainty about the region keeps energy markets sensitive to new headlines.

FX markets kept USD/CAD inside a long‑running 1.3550–1.3950 band. The pair has moved below its 200‑day moving average after a steep rally earlier in the year produced a double top and about a 2,000‑pip retracement. Intraday action formed a downward channel testing support at 1.38.

Technical markers on shorter time frames showed the 50‑hour moving average near 1.3835 acting as immediate resistance. Daily momentum indicators were near neutral. A sustained move below 1.38 on daily charts would target the lower bound of the range, while a rebound toward 1.3860–1.3870 would represent a retest of recent channel levels for dollar strength.

EUR/CAD traded near resistance around 1.62. A drop below 1.6150 on weekly charts would strengthen downside momentum for the euro against the Canadian dollar; a clear break above 1.62 would reference a wider 1.61–1.64 range.

Market participants cited upcoming Canadian economic releases and further developments in Middle East diplomacy as the main items to watch for new direction in energy prices and central bank expectations. Absent major shocks to growth or energy markets, USD/CAD remained confined to the stated range on the day.