US PCE Sticky in May; Consumer Spending Climbs, EUR/USD Tests 1.1387

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released Personal Consumption Expenditures data on June 25, 2026. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year in May. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Both readings matched consensus forecasts.

Personal income rose 0.7% in May, above the 0.4% consensus estimate. Personal spending increased 0.7% for the month, while real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%. Those figures were reported in the BEA release alongside the PCE inflation data.

Services inflation continued to account for most of the core persistence. Initial jobless claims were reported around 215,000, a level cited in recent labor-market reports. The earlier Consumer Price Index showed a flattening in the decline of inflation for shelter and core services. Producer Price Index data earlier in the month showed uneven input-cost pressures across supply chains.

The Federal Reserve uses core PCE as its preferred inflation gauge because it strips out volatile food and energy prices and adjusts for substitution bias, which captures changes in consumer choices as relative prices shift. Separately, first-quarter GDP was revised to 2.1% and durable goods orders have shown resilience in recent reports.

In foreign exchange markets, EUR/USD broke above a descending channel and was testing the first resistance pivot at 1.13872. The pair was trading above the 9-period exponential moving average and a 9/21 moving-average cross that began to slope upward. The daily pivot at 1.13559 was acting as immediate support, with further supports listed at 1.13273 and 1.12960. The one-hour Relative Strength Index read about 59.7 and the 14-period average true range was approximately 0.00139.