US Factory Orders Flat in February as Ex-Transport Rises

The U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report for February showed total factory orders at 0.0%, versus a consensus forecast for a 0.2% decline. The measure excluding transportation increased 1.2% from January. Overall factory orders for January were revised to +0.1%.

The ex-transport figure of +1.2% compared with January's reading, which was revised to +0.5% from an earlier +0.4% estimate. The Census report is published about five weeks after the reference month and includes a broader set of survey responses than the advance durable goods release.

Revisions to the earlier durable goods data were included in the factory orders release. Revised durable goods orders fell 1.3% for the month, a slightly smaller decline than the preliminary -1.4% print. Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.9%, up from a preliminary estimate of 0.8%.

Core capital goods orders, defined as nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and used as a proxy for business investment plans, rose 0.7%, matching a revised increase after an initial 0.6% reading. Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense, ex-air) increased 1.4%, compared with a preliminary 1.3% estimate.

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report covers new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories across durable and nondurable goods. Because it revises the advance durable goods numbers released earlier, the report can alter initial readings, particularly for transportation and defense categories.

Data since 2021 show wide swings in factory orders: strong gains in 2021 and 2022 were followed by moderation as interest rates rose. Readings through 2024 and into early 2025 were mixed, with large aircraft and defense contracts lifting some months while machinery and primary metals showed weaker demand.

The February report showed the largest gains outside the transportation sector and steady readings for core capital goods, with revisions that slightly narrowed the preliminary drop in durable goods.