UAE leaves OPEC+; spare supply may return if Hormuz reopens

The United Arab Emirates left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, reducing membership to seven. Abu Dhabi’s exit removes a participant from the coalition that agreed additional production cuts in April 2023. The UAE has an estimated 700,000-800,000 barrels per day of spare production capacity that could return to global markets if Strait of Hormuz export routes reopen.

UAE officials expanded production capacity in recent years and frequently produced above the group's quota levels. Disputes over output and enforcement of quotas had persisted for months and contributed to the decision to withdraw.

Physical exports from the Gulf remain constrained by a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping flows below available capacity. Because of the transit bottleneck, market participants expect limited immediate change to supply despite the UAE’s withdrawal. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold its routine meeting and may announce new quotas.

If shipping through the Strait normalizes, analysts estimate the UAE could add 700,000-800,000 bpd without OPEC+ limits. That supply increase would be likely to show up in medium-term market balances rather than in the current constrained physical market.

Brent crude traded around $114 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $106.50 after the announcement. Łukasz Zembik, senior market analyst at OANDA, described the price pullback as a correction after a recent rally and linked weaker cartel cohesion to medium-term downward pressure on prices.

Analysts say the exit reduces OPEC+ membership and could weaken quota discipline if other producers seek more independence. They expect greater competition among major exporters and higher price volatility if coordination continues to weaken and export routes return to normal.