Trump: Strait of Hormuz to reopen in 30 days; WTI down 7%

President Trump announced on May 25, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days. U.S. crude futures fell about 7% on Monday, returning to prices last seen in early May as traders reacted during a shortened, low-volume holiday session.

Market participants treated the announcement as a concrete diplomatic development and reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices in recent weeks. Several traders cautioned the price move took place in thin trading and will need confirmation in higher-volume sessions.

Physical conditions in the waterway will determine how quickly supply flows normalize. At peak activity the strait carries about 120 commercial ships per day. Normal maritime operations and the resolution of existing production and logistical shortfalls must occur before seaborne oil flows fully adjust.

On technical charts, WTI broke a large triangle formation that had been in place since early April. Short-term momentum shifted lower after the drop. The 50-hour moving average crossed below the 200-hour average. Traders identified $96 as a key intraday level; nearer-term support sits in a $93–$95 band, with $90 and the mid-$80s noted as further floors. A move below $90 would reopen the path toward the $80 area.

The reaction extended beyond crude prices. Energy-related futures and broader risk assets moved higher on expectations that a smaller geopolitical premium could ease market pressure. Volume remained subdued because of holiday schedules, and several traders said they will wait for higher volume and confirming price action before changing position sizes.

Elior Manier, a market analyst at OANDA, cautioned that physical reopening and logistical adjustments are required before prices can structurally reset. He added that traders would need to verify how serious the reopening prospect is and watch whether bulls can push and close prices above key intraday highs around $96.

The Strait of Hormuz sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and is a major route for seaborne oil shipments from several producers. If traffic resumes as suggested, the timing and scale of resumed ship movements will determine how much of the recent price rally is reversed and how quickly physical markets adjust.