Trump: Iran call lifts markets; oil falls from $105 to $98

President Donald Trump said a midday call from “the right people” in Iran helped ease market fears, with West Texas Intermediate crude retreating from an intraday high of $105.63 to roughly $98. Stocks, the euro and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened after the remarks.

U.S. equity futures swung sharply during the session, reversing from about a 50-point loss in S&P 500 futures to a roughly 70-point gain. The S&P 500 finished the day about 1.0% higher. The euro and the pound advanced against the dollar, moving EUR/USD closer to levels seen before the recent conflict and roughly 350 pips above recent lows.

In the Treasury market, the two-year yield reversed by about 8 basis points to end near 3.77%. The 10-year yield eased about 1.8 basis points to 4.299%. Traders noted the moves reflected reduced immediate risk and renewed attention to economic data.

Negotiations involving Iran continued during the day. Officials familiar with the talks said Iranian leaders had considered abandoning enrichment and believed they had been close to an agreement earlier in the week. One U.S. political participant, JD Vance, exited the negotiation process, while other officials remained engaged.

Oil volatility eased as traders sold into U.S. hours. WTI traded down to near $97.79 after peaking above $105. OPEC reported a 7.7 million barrels-per-day drop in output in March. European Central Bank governing council member Boris Vujcic said energy prices remained very close to the bank's baseline scenario. Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee told market participants that oil futures pointed to a short-lived spike.

Economic data that influenced markets included U.S. existing-home sales for March at an annualized 3.98 million units, below the 4.06 million forecast, and Canada’s February building permits, which fell 8.4% versus an expected 2.1% decline.

Market participants also flagged reports that a proposed U.S. naval blockade would not block neutral transit to or from non-Iranian destinations, a detail seen as reducing the risk of broader disruption to global shipping.

Currency moves were mixed. The New Zealand dollar was among the stronger performers, while the Japanese yen lagged. Traders cited both the lack of new large-scale hostilities and ongoing diplomatic contact as reasons for the intra-day improvement.

Trump's remark — “We were called this morning by the right people from Iran” — was widely noted by participants as a signal that back-channel contact continued. Officials and market sources said talks were ongoing, and the drop in oil from the day's peak removed one immediate source of market stress, supporting gains in equities and government bonds.