TD Cowen Cuts Nakamoto Price Target 58% to $17

TD Cowen lowered its split-adjusted price target for Nakamoto Inc. to $17, a 58% reduction from the bank’s prior outlook on a current-share basis. The firm kept a Buy rating; the new target implies nearly 275% upside from Nakamoto’s current share price.

Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete wrote the $17 target reflects a lower expected path for bitcoin and the effect of Nakamoto’s debt and preferred securities on common equity. “We continue to view bitcoin holdings as the primary driver of value,” the analysts added in a Monday research note.

TD Cowen’s revised base case assumes bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, down from the asset’s $126,000 all-time high recorded last October. Under that scenario, the bank expects Nakamoto to pause additional bitcoin purchases until 2027.

The analysts placed a value of roughly $521 million on Nakamoto’s projected year-end bitcoin holdings, but said outstanding obligations cut into the amount available to common shareholders. Nakamoto currently holds 4,467 BTC, worth about $290 million at recent prices, making it the 22nd-largest publicly traded bitcoin holder by holdings data.

TD Cowen noted recent balance-sheet actions at Nakamoto, including repayment of about $45 million of debt, extensions of roughly $105 million of principal through June 2027, reduced borrowing costs and an authorized share repurchase program of up to $25 million. The company completed closure of its legacy healthcare clinics last month and is focusing on bitcoin media, asset management and advisory services.

Nakamoto’s stock traded around $4.65 on Monday, down more than 4.5% on the day and off over 71% year-to-date, while bitcoin has declined about 26% over the same period.

In the research note, TD Cowen said the timing of bitcoin’s recovery and any future asset purchases will be key factors for the value of Nakamoto’s common shares.