Stocks Stall at Records as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Nears End

U.S. stocks reached fresh records on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 extending gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged. The rally slowed as investors awaited the scheduled expiration of the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 22.

The Nasdaq and S&P hit intraday peaks while the Dow failed to reach a new all-time high. The ceasefire deadline was cited by market participants as the main near-term factor affecting risk appetite. Reports from Washington indicated the White House will not extend the ceasefire or reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless negotiators deliver a finalized agreement, and prediction-market odds for a peace deal remained below 40 percent.

High-level diplomatic talks were delayed from last Thursday into the weekend and then into this week. One expected envoy, JD Vance, had not departed for Islamabad as of Monday. Traders sought concrete diplomatic progress before increasing exposure.

WTI crude oil traded around $90 a barrel, and energy prices were a focus for investors. Some market participants reduced risk exposure amid concern that failed talks could push oil higher and increase market volatility.

Technical readings showed mixed signals across indexes. The Dow gapped back toward 49,000 earlier in the week and was testing a gap-fill near 49,560; a sustained break above the recent high around 49,760 would point to further gains, while failure there could send the index toward support near 48,500 and lower bands around 48,000 and 47,400–47,600. The Nasdaq stood about 17 percent above prior highs with momentum indicators diverging; traders identified 26,200 as a key pivot, with downside targets near 25,500 and resistance around 26,600–26,750. The S&P 500 tested a weekend gap near 7,100; a rejection of that level would likely prompt a retest of prior highs near 7,000–7,020, while continued strength could push the index toward 7,150–7,200.

Earnings reports this week were generally positive and provided support for prices, but mega-cap stocks faced pressure while smaller-cap names held up. Many market participants described recent gains as a “peace trade” tied to diplomatic progress and were awaiting tangible developments before adding long exposure.

Analyst Elior Manier recommended tracking crude oil prices and the latest diplomatic developments throughout the week to prepare for potential market volatility.