Standard Chartered: Strategy’s 32 BTC sale could boost ether

Standard Chartered's digital assets research team flagged that Strategy sold 32 bitcoin in the last week of May and that the sale could mark the start of ether outperforming bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, highlighted the trade and the subsequent price action as a possible turning point.

Strategy still holds about 843,706 bitcoin, so the 32 BTC sale was a very small portion of its assets. Strategy disclosed the sale on Monday; bitcoin fell below $70,000 that day while ether rallied against bitcoin. In a research note, Kendrick wrote: “I see yesterday as being the start of ETH outperformance v BTC.” He added that the session was one of the largest ETH-BTC topside moves on days when bitcoin fell since the start of 2024.

Standard Chartered raised its expected ETH-BTC ratio to 0.040 by the end of the year from roughly 0.028 at the time of the note. Kendrick wrote that the projection would remain even if Strategy repurchased many times the 32 BTC it sold.

Kendrick pointed to a difference in how the two networks generate income. Ether can be staked and currently yields about 3%, producing an ongoing cash return for holders. Bitcoin does not offer a comparable staking yield.

Kendrick noted that the staking yield reduces the need for Ethereum treasury firms to sell assets for operational cashflow. He compared multiples of net asset value, or mNAV, among several Ethereum treasury companies and Strategy, noting some Ethereum firms briefly traded below Strategy's mNAV and that he expects their mNAVs to recover higher over time.

Kendrick reiterated long-term price targets for ether, comparing Ethereum's current setup to Amazon during the 2001 dot-com bust. He maintained targets of $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030, citing wider use of Ethereum for stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and decentralized finance.

On the day of the disclosure, bitcoin traded near $68,790, down more than 4% over 24 hours, while ether traded around $1,975, down about 0.25% over the same period. Strategy's stock fell more than 7% on Tuesday morning, extending the prior session's decline.

Kendrick described days when ether gains while bitcoin falls as “important turning points for ETH-BTC” and wrote that even a sizeable buyback by Strategy would not necessarily alter his projection for the ETH-BTC ratio.