Retail Traders Push Prediction Market Volume to $25.7B

Prediction market volume rose to $25.7 billion in March, a 10.6% increase from February, according to a Bitget Wallet report produced with Polymarket. The analysis tracked 1.29 million wallets during the first quarter of 2026 and found retail traders dominated activity.

The report found 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000 over the quarter. Median trade sizes were small, typically $2 to $3. Growth was concentrated among micro, light and mid-tier retail users, with engagement deepening as users expanded into more market categories rather than increasing individual trade sizes.

Crypto markets served as the primary entry point for new participants, accounting for 39.6% of activity among micro users. Bitcoin event contracts drew about 593,000 users in Q1 2026 and produced $5.42 billion in volume. Ethereum markets recorded $1.19 billion from roughly 294,000 users. Solana markets had $420 million with about 185,000 users, and XRP-linked contracts reached $308 million across 132,000 users.

By category, sports generated the largest volume in the quarter at $10.1 billion, supported by ongoing global events and repeat participation. Political markets produced $5.0 billion, of which $2.41 billion was tied to geopolitics. Crypto-related markets totaled $7.3 billion. Other segments, including pop culture, finance, weather, and science and technology, recorded smaller volumes while broadening the set of active categories.

User activity varied by tier. Micro users averaged 2.5 active days and participation in 1.45 categories during Q1 2026. Mid-tier users averaged 9.9 active days and engaged in 2.34 categories. The report said users increasingly placed trades across crypto, sports and political markets instead of concentrating on a single market.

The report attributed crypto’s onboarding role to continuous market access, familiar price dynamics and low entry thresholds, and noted sustained engagement shifted to markets tied to recurring real-world events where users can return regularly.