Pompliano’s ProCap integrates Kalshi prediction markets

ProCap Financial, the investment firm led by Anthony Pompliano, announced a partnership with Kalshi to bring the exchange’s real-time prediction market prices and trading volumes into ProCap’s research systems and trading models.

The firm will use contract prices that trade like binary options, where a price reflects the market’s implied probability of a specific outcome, to supplement economic indicators, news flows and internal models. ProCap identified rates, inflation, geopolitical events and corporate outcomes as priority research areas for the data.

Under the agreement, ProCap will access Kalshi’s data via an application programming interface and feed it into internal dashboards and model inputs. The initial rollout will focus on markets that directly affect interest-rate expectations and inflation readings.

Kalshi operates an event-exchange platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that lists contracts tied to discrete outcomes. Contract prices change as traders buy and sell positions and are commonly interpreted as short-term probability signals. The exchange offers contracts tied to macro and policy events, sports, weather and other outcomes.

ProCap plans to correlate Kalshi-implied probabilities with traditional market signals such as futures spreads, swaps pricing and economic releases to inform trade ideas and risk estimates. The firm will test how dynamic contract prices interact with existing models and evaluate the data across portfolio strategies.

ProCap described the integration as an expansion of its research and risk-management tools. Kalshi noted institutional participants increasingly use event-contract prices for research and hedging.

Academic and industry research has found prediction markets can sometimes outperform polls or expert forecasts for certain binary events, with usefulness that varies by event type and by market liquidity. The firms did not disclose financial terms or a specific launch date.