Polymarket Faces Backlash Over MicroStrategy Bitcoin Resolution

Polymarket resolved a prediction market to “No” on whether MicroStrategy sold any bitcoin by May 31. The market returned a “No” outcome twice; both results were challenged and the event is in a final review stage. MicroStrategy filed a Form 8-K on June 1 disclosing it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 for about $2.5 million, its first reported bitcoin sale since December 2022.

Traders supporting a “Yes” resolution pointed to the 8-K and the listed transaction dates as evidence the sales occurred within the market’s time window. Traders backing “No” argued the details were not publicly available until after the May 31 cutoff and therefore did not meet the market’s disclosure standard. Polymarket added a context note to the market page on Monday: “Confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify.” The note has drawn criticism from some users.

Several traders reported losses tied to the resolution. User willo2 posted on X that he lost $500,000 after placing large “Yes” bets and alleged the platform allowed betting on June 1; he wrote, “This was straight-up NOT part of the rules.” He added, “Why? Because if it was true, the market would have closed on May 31. The market didn't close.” Another participant, 0xDinosaur, filed a formal notice of dispute and demand for review, arguing the market should resolve based on the transaction date rather than the filing date. That participant disclosed buying 49,695.76 “Yes” shares for roughly 35,000 USDC and wrote, “A filing date and a transaction date are different things.”

Polymarket has not issued further public comment beyond the context note on the market page. If the dispute proceeds through the platform’s contested-market process, the outcome could be decided by a vote of holders of the UMA token.

Prediction markets settle bets using defined resolution criteria. When transaction dates and public disclosure dates do not match, disputes focus on how the market wording and rules apply to the event and to the timing of public confirmation.