Nasdaq 100 Faces Short Pullback Risk as SOXX Shows Exhaustion

The Nasdaq 100 reached an intraday record high of 29,390 on May 11. OANDA analysis flagged a short-term pullback risk after the iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) showed signs of overbought exhaustion and a bearish RSI divergence.

The index rose 3.2% from an intraday low of 28,480 on May 8 to the May 11 high, extending a medium-term uptrend that began at the March 30 low. OANDA market data show recent gains concentrated in semiconductor and AI-hardware names; SanDisk, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices posted increases of about 151%, 150% and 105% respectively over the past three months.

SOXX has tracked the Nasdaq 100 closely. A 20-day rolling correlation between the two stood near 0.95, according to OANDA. SOXX closed above its upper Bollinger Band on May 11 after roughly six consecutive weeks of gains. The ETF’s daily RSI displayed bearish divergence in overbought territory, a pattern in which price highs are not matched by strength in the RSI.

OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong pointed to technical risks for the Nasdaq 100 at the short-term horizon. The index was about 6% above its 20-day moving average at the May 11 high. Wong identified an hourly RSI bearish divergence and an hourly RSI support-line breakdown on May 12. The analysis highlighted a short-term pivot zone at 29,505/29,615; a decline below that zone would open a minor mean reversion toward lower support levels.

Near-term support levels listed in the analysis are 28,660, 28,460–28,280 and 27,850, the last near the 20-day moving average. Upside resistance clusters are 29,893–29,953 and 30,410–30,417, based on Fibonacci extensions. The report framed the likely correction horizon as one to three trading days and noted the medium-term uptrend remains in place from the March 30 low.

The technical assessment is based on price and momentum indicators and does not incorporate macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Prices cited are top-of-book data from OANDA Global Markets Ltd and are provided for information and education purposes only.