Nasdaq 100 Nears Key Support, Could Trigger Multi-Week Drop

The Nasdaq 100 approached a technical inflection point on July 16, 2026, after underperforming other major U.S. indexes. Market moves in AI infrastructure and high-memory semiconductor stocks and rising volatility in chip names were cited as the main factors behind recent weakness.

Through Thursday, July 16, the Nasdaq 100 fell about 2.7% week-to-date. By comparison, the S&P 500 was down about 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% and the Russell 2000 declined 0.1% over the same period. Strong second-quarter results from major banks did not prevent a rotation out of richly valued technology and chip stocks.

Several large memory-chip names reversed sharply after big gains earlier in the year. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics each dropped sharply in the week of July 13, falling roughly 15.5% and 10.5% respectively, following the unwind of leveraged long products tied to those names. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a higher capital expenditure forecast and its American Depositary Receipts fell about 4.5% on July 16.

Some major cloud and search firms reported delays in product timing for consumer-facing AI models. Market participants have cited those delays, together with elevated chip-sector capital spending, as factors shifting attention toward current earnings and cash flow rather than forward-looking capex commitments.

Volatility in semiconductor shares expanded. The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF dropped below its 50-day moving average and its realised volatility, measured by the 14-period Average True Range relative to a 50-period moving average, increased to about 2.13 times. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell about 11.1% month-to-date, and South Korea’s KOSPI was down roughly 17% over the same period. Correlation between SOXX and the Nasdaq 100 has strengthened since late June.

On technical charts, the Nasdaq 100 printed an intraday level near 28,563 at the latest observation and had traded back below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages after a rally stalled at a descending trendline from the June 22 high. A decisive break below the 28,200 neckline of a potential double-top pattern would expose an intermediate support near 27,844, a Fibonacci extension level. A sustained hourly close above 28,945 would reduce the short-term bearish bias and could open a path to resistances near 29,227–29,350 and 29,635.

Market participants are monitoring earnings, cash flow and chip-demand visibility as they assess the outlook for high-beta growth stocks and semiconductor suppliers.