Nasdaq 100 nears 28,200 support; correction risk rises

Charts show the Nasdaq 100 closing in on a 28,200 neckline support level while semiconductor volatility has risen. The index was down 2.7% week-to-date as of Thursday, July 16, 2026, compared with the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.1%).

Stocks tied to AI infrastructure and high-memory-bandwidth semiconductors that posted large gains in the first half of 2026 have reversed some of those moves. Two South Korean memory-chip bellwethers, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, fell about 15.5% and 10.5%, respectively, in the trading week of July 13, 2026. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its capital-expenditure forecast; its American Depositary Receipts dropped 4.5% on July 16.

The PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has moved below its 50-day moving average. Its realised volatility, measured as the 14-period average true range relative to the 50-period moving average, widened to approximately 2.13 times the average. SOXX was about 11.1% lower month-to-date, while South Korea’s KOSPI was down about 17% month-to-date.

Technical charts show a possible medium-term double-top forming on the Nasdaq 100 since the June 3 all-time high. The index pulled back after meeting a descending trendline from the June 22 high and has traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The intraday level around 28,563 was nearing the 28,200 neckline at the time of writing.

A decisive close below 28,200 would expose the next intermediate support near 27,844, while an hourly close above 28,945 would remove the near-term bearish technical bias and put resistance between about 29,227 and 29,635 in focus.

Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst in Singapore, cautioned: “SOXX is facing an increased risk of a medium-term, multi-week corrective decline that may trigger a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.”

Major U.S. banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results in mid-July, but those gains were concentrated outside the largest technology names. Elevated capital spending plans by suppliers and delayed monetisation of some AI projects coincided with recent profit-taking in high-beta tech and chip stocks. The combination of concentrated prior gains in AI-related names, expanded semiconductor volatility and higher capex forecasts has been reflected in recent price action across the Nasdaq 100 and related equity benchmarks.