Markets Rally on Iran Talks, Hormuz Reopening; Oil Drops

Global markets rallied on April 17 after reports that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and progress in US‑Iran negotiations reduced near‑term geopolitical risk. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set intraday records, Bitcoin approached $78,000, and West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 10% to trade below $90 a barrel.

Diplomatic activity this week, including comments from President Donald Trump that he “expects a finalized deal in a day or two,” coincided with market moves that reduced prices for geopolitical risk. The talks, held in Pakistan, produced a temporary ceasefire tied to ongoing negotiations.

On US exchanges the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged but moved closer to its peers by the close. Cryptocurrency markets posted gains with Bitcoin near $78,000 and other digital assets higher. Silver led gains among metals and higher‑beta assets outperformed across sectors.

Oil registered the largest reaction. WTI crude dropped about 10% from the prior session, erasing much of the earlier rally and trading under $90. The decline represented about a 17% fall from the week's opening gap before a partial rebound later in the day. OANDA market analyst Elior Manier wrote there were “clear signs of insider trading” in the crude market ahead of the Hormuz announcement and noted physical traders will monitor whether tanker flows actually resume.

Macroeconomic reports added to market calculations. Recent US consumer and producer price indexes rose strongly but did not exceed the most extreme forecasts, according to an OANDA note. The report cautioned that energy‑led price increases could translate into broader inflationary pressure in coming months and said markets will watch inflation releases from Japan, Canada and the UK for additional clues.

Key data next week include Japan’s March inflation report due Thursday evening, which may affect Bank of Japan policy expectations; Canadian consumer inflation on Monday, where consensus is near 2.5%; and a packed UK schedule with employment, inflation and retail sales. German PMIs and the ZEW survey will provide euro‑area signals. The US calendar is lighter, with retail sales as the main release on Tuesday.

The current ceasefire tied to the talks expires on April 22. Market participants noted that without a formal extension or a signed agreement, recent gains could reverse and volatility could return. Manier wrote that the Hormuz reopening was “icing on a very bullish cake” for markets but warned that a formal peace deal would be required to sustain the rally.

Traders and physical market participants said they will watch further diplomatic developments over the weekend and the physical flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to assess how durable moves in oil and risk assets may be.