K33: February $60K Remains Bitcoin Cycle Low After 200D Rejection

Research and brokerage firm K33 reports that Bitcoin’s roughly $60,000 low in February remains the cycle’s maximum drawdown after price was rejected at the 200-day moving average near $82,000. Bitcoin has fallen about 6% since the retest.

K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, wrote that the market spent 189 days between a November breakdown of the 200-day moving average and a May retest, longer than the 96, 132 and 85 days recorded after similar breakdowns in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

During the November-to-May interval, Bitcoin traded more than 20% below its prior level, compared with positive returns in 2014 and 2022 and a shallower drawdown of about 8% in 2018. K33 noted the 200-day moving average was trending higher during those earlier post-breakdown rallies but is trending lower in 2026.

Lunde wrote: ‘Past rallies recovered quickly, rebuilding risk appetite and leverage and setting up the unwind that fueled the next leg lower. The current slow grind has not.' K33’s derivatives analysis shows unusually pessimistic sentiment, with pattern-matching finding closer similarity to March and April 2025 than to the rapid rebounds that followed earlier breakdowns.

Quarterly 13F filings available for Q1 show institutional participants reduced Bitcoin holdings by 26,733 BTC, while retail investors increased exposure by 19,395 BTC, K33 reports. The firm attributes a large share of the institutional reductions to delta-neutral trading firms such as Millennium and Jane Street, citing compressing crypto yields, heightened volatility and opportunities in commodity markets after escalations in Iran.

Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded their ninth-largest five-day outflow since U.S. spot ETFs launched about 600 trading days ago, placing that period in the bottom 1.5% of flow days. K33 found heavy outflow days become more likely when Bitcoin trades near the average ETF cost basis: the chance of a bottom-5% flow day rises to 10.2% in weeks when Bitcoin crosses the cost basis and the chance of a bottom-10% flow day rises to 16.1% when Bitcoin trades within 5% of that cost basis. When Bitcoin trades more than 15% above the cost basis, the chance of a bottom-5% flow day falls to about 3%.

Lunde added: ‘Heavy outflow days are far more common when BTCUSD trades close to its cost basis.' He also wrote that market participants seek to avoid or limit losses after a deep drawdown.

K33’s base case remains that the February $60,000 level marked the cycle’s maximum drawdown and that a milder 2025 bull market sets up a more moderate corrective phase in 2026. The firm says the 200-day moving average will be a key gauge for traders assessing whether Bitcoin resumes higher trends or faces renewed selling pressure.