Iran talks uncertainty pushes WTI crude above $100

WTI crude oil moved back above $100 after Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei announced Iran will retain its near‑weapons‑grade enriched uranium stockpile, a stance that removes a concession U.S. negotiators had sought and added a geopolitical premium to energy prices.

Earlier in the session, President Trump had described a deal as close, prompting a pullback that reversed when Khamenei’s statement emerged and markets reassessed the prospects for a swift agreement.

Technical analysis shows WTI trading inside a four‑hour triangle between roughly $110 and $98. The contract briefly tested the upper edge of that range on optimism about a deal, then found support just above the four‑hour 200‑period moving average. Since the intraday low, WTI has climbed about 5 percent. Traders are watching resistance in the $106–$108 area and the $109 level, with larger channel highs near $117–$120.

On shorter time frames, the 50‑hour moving average has been breached and market participants are seeking a four‑hour close to confirm the near‑term trend. Key intraday supports include the $98–$100 pivot, then $93–$95 and the $90 psychological level. Lower structural support begins near $82 and the $78–$80 area from earlier sessions.

Market analysts noted that headlines alone have not resolved core negotiating differences and that the market is pricing a longer, more volatile path toward any agreement. Prediction markets continue to show uncertainty about whether a deal will be reached by the end of June, keeping political risk premiums elevated in oil.

Traders hedging exposure are monitoring developments in Tehran and Washington closely, while technical traders focus on price behavior around the identified resistance and support bands.

Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program influence oil markets because limits on nuclear activity can affect sanctions relief and potential changes in Iranian oil exports. U.S. negotiators consider retention of enriched uranium inside Iran unacceptable; with that issue unresolved, market participants are pricing in continued volatility as diplomatic discussions proceed.