Gold eyes $4,900 as Fed-cut odds rise, Dollar weakens

Spot gold approached the $4,900 level on April 17, 2026, trading near $4,800 with a 0.2% intraday gain during the Asian session. The metal had rebounded about 18% from a March low and was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Gold plunged 22% from a pre-conflict high to an intraday low of $4,099 on March 23, 2026, after the U.S.-Iran conflict began on Feb. 27. It recovered to an intraday high of $4,871 on April 15 but remained about 8% below the pre-conflict baseline as of April 16, while global equities posted gains led by U.S. mega-cap technology stocks.

Market pricing of Federal Reserve policy shifted in recent sessions. The CME FedWatch tool showed roughly a 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Dec. 9, 2026 meeting as of April 17, after expectations had fallen to zero in late March. The U.S. Dollar Index fell about 2.8% to roughly 98.20 from a late-March peak near 100.64 and traded below its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages on Friday.

Longer-term U.S. Treasury real yields eased from a late-March high of 2.17% to about 1.85% on April 15, near the 200-day moving average. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold; a further drop to around 1.66% would narrow the yield advantage of bonds over bullion.

Technically, the 50-day moving average sits near $4,900 and is acting as short-term resistance. Gold has traded above its 20-day moving average since April 13 and has followed an upward-sloping channel since the March low. Short-term support levels are around $4,700 and $4,645. A break above $4,900 would expose near-term resistance zones at $4,980–$5,039 and $5,125–$5,166. An hourly close below $4,645 would open the possibility of a retracement to the $4,524–$4,486 area.

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, wrote: “

Clearing $4,900 would likely trigger another leg higher for gold, with $5,125 a reasonable near-term objective.”

Near-term price direction will depend on whether gold can sustain momentum above the 50-day moving average and on developments in Fed policy expectations, the U.S. dollar and longer-term real yields.