Galaxy Research pegs Clarity Act 2026 odds at 50%

Galaxy Research lowered its estimate that the Clarity Act will become law in 2026 to 50% from 60%, attributing the change to tighter Senate scheduling and slow progress in talks. The firm said the downgrade reflects timing and calendar constraints rather than alterations to the bill's text.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, wrote in a Friday post that the team reduced the odds to “50-50, as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago.” He noted Galaxy had raised the probability to 60% on June 5 but that no floor date is set and no motion to proceed is scheduled in the Senate.

Thorn outlined the steps remaining for the measure to become law. Negotiators must produce a merged Banking-Agriculture text. A motion to proceed needs to be filed and approved. The Senate would then need to hold floor debate, complete an amendment process and secure 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. After Senate action, the House must act on the version produced by the Senate.

Writing about the calendar, Thorn urged that Senate Majority Leader Thune announce floor time by early July to preserve a path to enactment in 2026. Without a scheduling announcement by then, he warned the process could slip into September, a period that overlaps with primary and campaign activity and could make scheduling controversial votes more difficult. Thorn wrote that “for a 60-vote bill that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks.”

Thorn also pointed to a recent statement from President Donald Trump indicating he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act. That position, Thorn said, compresses available floor time and reduces the weeks available to complete negotiations and procedural steps for the Clarity Act.

A Senate aide indicated the Clarity Act ranks high on the chamber's July agenda and that senators have spent months negotiating the measure. The legislation would split oversight of most digital-asset products between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with primary authority for many assets assigned to the CFTC.