EUR/USD Above 1.1700, Eyes 1.1769-1.1800 Ahead of FOMC, ECB

EUR/USD held above the 1.1700 pivot on Monday, recovering weekend losses and trading marginally higher as markets awaited Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy decisions scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Traders expect volatility to increase around the central bank meetings.

On the four-hour chart the euro reclaimed the 1.1700 handle and moved above the 100- and 200-period simple moving averages. The RSI on that timeframe is near 54. The 1.1700–1.1710 area is acting as a short-term support zone.

On the hourly chart the pair stalled near 1.1754 and has used the 200-period moving average as intraday support. A bullish engulfing candle or a long-wick rejection in the 1.1716–1.1700 area would be a technical sign of buyers defending the short-term trend.

On the 15-minute chart a tactical long setup would be a retest of the 200-period moving average followed by a move back above 1.1750, with immediate resistance at 1.1769 and 1.1800. A 15-minute close below 1.1700 would invalidate that scenario; if sellers push lower the next supports to watch are 1.1685 and the April 8 swing low at 1.1643. Additional resistance levels above current prices include 1.1867.

Central bank guidance, rate commentary or projection shifts from the Fed or the ECB could prompt directional moves in the U.S. dollar that affect EUR/USD. Traders are monitoring the U.S. Dollar Index for broader directional cues.

Geopolitical developments remain a secondary risk. Progress on a potential U.S.-Iran agreement could reduce demand for safe-haven dollars and weaken the greenback, while headlines that increase risk aversion could strengthen the dollar and pressure the euro.

The pair remains above the 1.1700 pivot. Market participants are watching short-term price structure and the key levels noted above for confirmation of direction ahead of the FOMC and ECB meetings.