Dollar Firm as Ceasefire Ends; DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Tested

The U.S. dollar strengthened as a two-week ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict ended, with the dollar index (DXY) probing the 98.00 support area and major currency pairs entering technical tests. Traders cited uncertainty over a U.S. delegation’s departure and mixed signals from Iranian officials as factors affecting market moves.

Global markets had rallied when the truce was first announced, pushing stock indexes higher and sending crude oil down from four-year highs. The dollar fell about 2.5% during that rally but has partially retraced those losses over the last two trading sessions as the ceasefire expired and officials signaled the pause may not be extended.

An FX analyst at a major broker noted the DXY attempted multiple times to break below 98.00 during intraday trade and is testing its four-hour 50-period moving average around 98.34. A sustained move above roughly 98.40 would point to a bullish rebound, with additional upside if the index clears a 98.50–98.70 pivot. Immediate resistance sits near 99.40–99.50 and the April spike at about 99.68. Support levels below 98.00 include 97.40–97.60 and the 2025 lows in the 96.40–96.80 area.

EUR/USD has moved largely in inverse relation to the dollar, trading near its four-hour 50-period moving average around 1.1760. The euro failed to clear the 1.1850 area earlier this week and is roughly 1,000 pips below that recent high. Market participants are watching a break below the 1.1720 level for confirmation of further downside. Immediate resistance is around the 1.1830 June 2025 highs and the 1.1850–1.1860 range, with deeper support between 1.1625–1.1635 and 1.1540–1.1570.

AUD/USD has attempted to rebound after testing the bottom of an upward channel. A move above the March high at 0.71867 would extend the recovery and could target channel highs near 0.7250, while failure to hold current levels could lead to a break of the bullish channel and a slide toward pivots in the 0.6970–0.70 area. The pair’s four-hour 50-period moving average is near 0.7128.

Markets observed a stronger correlation between the dollar and oil during the conflict, as risk pricing and energy flows pushed both assets in the same direction. That link weakened when ceasefire hopes drove oil lower and risk assets higher; the end of the truce has returned risk and energy dynamics to traders’ focus.

U.S. officials worked to coordinate the departure of a delegation that included Vice President J.D. Vance amid mixed Iranian messaging. The White House indicated it does not want to extend the ceasefire and warned the campaign would resume without a deal. Traders and fund managers are monitoring the DXY 98.00 level, the EUR/USD 1.1720 pivot and the AUD/USD 0.7187–0.7250 zone for short-term cues; developments in the talks and any military activity are being watched for market impact.