CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Rally Is Bear-Market Recovery

CryptoQuant classifies bitcoin's roughly 10% rebound from about $57,700 to near $63,000 as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal. The firm reported the rally reclaimed $60,000 as a support area but did not meet its criteria for a sustained bull market.

The firm reported the bounce followed last week's bear-market low and aligns with historically positive July performance. Julio Moreno, head of research, wrote that over the past decade July has often closed higher and that in the bear-market years 2018 and 2022 bitcoin rose roughly 20% and 17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak. He added that entering July 2026 fresh off a bear-market low increases the chance of further upside in the near term.

CryptoQuant's 30-day total bitcoin demand metric, which combines spot and perpetual futures activity, recovered from what the firm called the sharpest contraction since 2022 and is now close to neutral after falling by about 650,000 BTC in early June. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May.

Moreno added, ‘A move back into positive territory would confirm that the demand engine is re-igniting.'

U.S. investor activity improved. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, recovered from deeply negative levels in early June to about -0.062 as bitcoin rebounded, suggesting selling pressure on U.S. exchanges eased and institutional demand stabilized, CryptoQuant noted.

Valuation signals shifted from extreme pessimism. Traders' unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June, well under CryptoQuant's -12% undervaluation threshold; the firm observed that readings at those levels have often coincided with local market bottoms. That metric has started to recover alongside the price bounce.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which aggregates onchain, market and valuation indicators, stands at 20, well below the 60 level the firm identifies as needed to support a sustained rally. The firm recommends viewing recent price gains as a bear-market recovery until the Bull Score and demand metrics show a stronger, sustained recovery.