CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Profit-Taking May Rise After Rally

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin profit-taking could increase following a more than 20% price rise in April. The firm reported that holders realized 14,600 BTC on May 4 and that the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained above 1.00 since mid-April.

STH-SOPR tracks whether coins moved by short-term holders were transacted at a profit (values above 1.0) or a loss (values below 1.0). CryptoQuant recorded the STH-SOPR at 1.016, indicating short-term holders have generally sold into profit. Daily realized profits reached 14,600 BTC on May 4, the highest single-day figure reported since Dec. 10, 2025.

On a 30-day rolling basis, net realized profits returned to roughly +20,000 BTC, the first positive reading since Dec. 22, 2025. The firm contrasted that with heavy net losses of about -398,000 BTC during February and March.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, described the April–May advance as a “bear market rally” driven by prior undervaluation, easing macroeconomic pressure and rising demand for perpetual futures. He characterized the shift from net loss realization to net profit realization as “a structural inflection point in bear market dynamics,” noting the rally restored profitability across a broader portion of holders.

CryptoQuant noted the current +20,000 BTC in 30-day net profits remains well below the roughly 130,000–200,000 BTC range seen in past bull market transitions. Unrealized profits also moved higher, near 18% compared with unrealized losses around -29% in February and March. Higher unrealized gains can increase the likelihood that holders sell to lock in gains, which raises the chance of a price correction.

The firm added that market flows remain mixed: demand for perpetual futures is strong, spot demand contraction has been mild, and exchange inflows are muted. CryptoQuant summarized that these factors are consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not reached a confirmed distribution peak. Bitcoin was trading near $80,180 when the firm released its analysis.