Copper rallies 17% as US-Iran ceasefire lifts risk appetite

Copper prices rose about 17% from a March 23 low of 5.1889 to a two-month high of 6.1037 on April 15, recovering most losses recorded after the outbreak of hostilities at the end of February. From the Feb. 27 pre-war baseline through April 20, LME spot copper was about 0.75% lower.

Trading conditions changed after a temporary two-week ceasefire took effect on April 8. Market participants increased risk appetite and positioned ahead of a second round of talks scheduled to take place in Pakistan; President Trump indicated the talks could occur ‘either on Tuesday or Wednesday.'

On technical charts, copper formed a bullish-flag consolidation following a corrective pullback of about 2.65% from the April high. The flag’s upper boundary near 6.0680 is the immediate trigger: a clear break above that level would open intermediate targets at 6.1755–6.2910.

An hourly close below 5.8790 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and could expose moving-average supports at about 5.7357 and 5.6545, which correspond to the 20-day and 50-day averages. Price action has been contained within a minor ascending channel since the March low and the hourly RSI has rebounded toward the 32 level.

Fundamental data show global manufacturing activity remained in expansion in March. A PMI diffusion measure stood near 72.3%, indicating the majority of reporting economies had manufacturing PMIs at or above 50. S&P Global will release flash PMI data for Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. on April 23.

Geopolitical developments continue to affect market sentiment. The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian-flagged tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has intermittently forced closures in the strait to restrict movements of oil vessels. Those actions have contributed to swings in risk appetite and commodity prices.

Market participants are watching whether copper clears 6.0680 or records an hourly close below 5.8790, the upcoming flash PMI releases on April 23, and the outcome of the Pakistan talks.