China export momentum tested by Iran shock; Miran speaks

China's March exports are expected to have slowed to about 8.6% year-on-year in dollar terms as higher energy and transport costs tied to the Iran conflict weigh on demand. Amir Miran, a Federal Reserve political appointee who supports rate cuts, is scheduled to speak today. Markets are likely to weigh his comments on interest-rate prospects alongside the trade figures.

A poll of economists forecast March export growth of 8.6% compared with a 21.8% rise in January and February combined. The slowdown follows disruptions linked to Iran and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows, which have pushed up shipping and input costs.

Analysts say the key question for exporters is whether strong demand for AI-related goods such as semiconductors and servers can offset higher energy bills and weaker overseas purchasing power. Orders for semiconductors and other tech-related shipments have shown continued strength.

Forecasts for March vary. Some economists expect growth near 20%, while others see it around 3%, reflecting uncertainty about demand and a high year-ago comparison when exporters accelerated shipments ahead of U.S. tariff changes. Imports are expected to rise about 11.2% year-on-year and the trade surplus is forecast to narrow to roughly $108 billion.

Some exporters may remain competitive as buyers seek lower-cost suppliers. Existing commodity stockpiles could help cushion input cost increases, but higher fuel and transport bills are eroding global purchasing power and may reduce demand for Chinese goods.

China entered 2026 with strong export momentum and a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in the prior year. The official March trade numbers, due today, will provide a clearer view of whether early-year strength continues.