Ceasefire Deadline Keeps Gold, Silver Range-Bound

The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is due to expire Wednesday, April 22, leaving gold and silver trading in narrow ranges. Traders note gold faces resistance near $4,850–$4,900 and support around $4,781, while silver trades roughly between $77 and $83.

The U.S. administration has expressed a preference for a diplomatic resolution while also indicating it would use force if necessary.

Both metals have recovered since late March. Gold is about 17% higher than its March 22 low but has not cleared $4,900. Capital flows have shifted toward global equities in recent weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude has retreated toward $90 a barrel after earlier spikes.

Short-term technical indicators show downward pressure on gold. The four-hour 200-period moving average is acting as resistance. A break below the 50-period moving average near $4,781 would open the path to $4,650. Immediate intraday resistance includes the 4-hour 200-period average around $4,800 and the $4,850–$4,900 band; higher levels to watch are $5,100 and $5,400.

Silver has rallied from March lows but meets supply pressure near $83. It trades inside a bullish channel with an upper bound near $84.50 and a lower bound near $77. If momentum stalls, traders expect consolidation inside a $77–$83 range. Longer-term breakout zones include $90–$92, with a March high at $96.47 and the record high at $121.67. Support points include $75–$79, moving averages near $77, and past session lows around $61.

Market participants outline two possible paths. If talks fail and geopolitical risk rises, a risk-off surge would likely lift gold above the $4,850–$4,900 band, particularly if oil remains below $100 and inflation expectations do not increase. If risk appetite persists, safe-haven demand may stay muted and industrial-linked metals such as silver and copper may lose momentum.

Traders and portfolio managers will monitor diplomatic developments and short-term technical signals ahead of the ceasefire deadline. Short-term volatility in precious metals may increase while markets await a diplomatically settled outcome.