Bullish exhaustion seen in Goldman Sachs ahead of Q2

Goldman Sachs showed technical signs of bullish exhaustion ahead of its second-quarter results, due before the US market open on July 14, 2026. Technical indicators cited by market analysts include daily RSI divergence and repeated failures to trade and hold above the 20-day moving average.

The stock has risen about 19% year-to-date through July 13, outperforming the S&P 500, which gained about 9.8% over the same period, and the S&P Financial sector, which rose about 2.4%. Analysts expect second-quarter earnings per share of roughly $14.51 and revenue near $16.22 billion, according to consensus estimates compiled by market data providers.

Company-level drivers for the quarter include investment banking fees and Global Markets revenue. A pickup in mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and underwriting would support the investment banking line. Strong fixed income, currencies and commodities trading and equities trading would bolster Global Markets revenue. Market participants will compare those results with macro developments that could affect client activity and trading volumes.

Macro events scheduled around the results include the US consumer price index release and congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Renewed tensions in the Middle East and firmer oil prices have increased cross-asset volatility. Higher volatility can increase hedging and derivatives activity while also affecting risk appetite and the timing of capital markets transactions.

Technical analysis shows a medium-term rally from a March low near 780.50 to an all-time high near 1,125 on June 18. The daily RSI produced a series of lower highs while price repeatedly failed to hold above the 20-day moving average, a combination identified by technicians as bearish divergence. A daily close above 1,095.90 is cited as the threshold that would negate near-term mean-reversion scenarios. Failure to clear that level increases focus on potential support around 1,000 and 971.85, with deeper weakness potentially reaching the 200-day moving average near 905.75.

If the stock closes above 1,095.90, technical paths discussed point first to a retest of the 1,125 high and then to resistance clusters around 1,171 and 1,197 based on Fibonacci extensions. If it does not, technicians expect a multi-week pullback while market participants reassess capital-markets momentum. The technical analysis was prepared by Kelvin Wong of OANDA’s MarketPulse team.