Bitwise CEO: Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle Has Ended

Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, argued in a recent interview that the crypto market's long-standing four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving has ended as institutional investors and firms now dominate trading and investment activity.

He pointed to the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, expanded regulated custody options, the growth of trading desks at asset managers and increased use of over-the-counter execution as factors boosting institutional participation.

Horsley added that price moves now reflect institutional allocation decisions and product flows more than retail-driven narratives and momentum.

Institutions use formal allocation processes, risk-management tools and over-the-counter execution that can moderate extreme swings, he noted. Institutional trading often occurs through large block trades and programmatic flows, which shifts where and how liquidity is supplied.

Horsley pointed out that improved custody infrastructure, the availability of regulated products and clearer compliance frameworks have reduced custody and counterparty concerns for many large firms, making participation more practical.

Market participants and analysts have tracked inflows into institutional products and the expansion of crypto services at traditional financial firms. Bitwise has developed institutional products and custody solutions for large investors.

The four-year cycle refers to Bitcoin's periodic halvings, which reduce new supply and have historically preceded multi-year price rallies followed by corrections. Observers have debated whether institutional capital and new products would reinforce or alter that historical pattern.

“Price moves now track allocations and product flows more than retail momentum,” Horsley argued.

He recommended that investors and market participants adjust expectations and strategies to reflect a market where institutional processes and products exert greater influence.