Bitcoin at risk as exchange inflows hit $76.8K resistance

CryptoQuant warned that bitcoin faces rising profit-taking risk after hourly exchange inflows climbed to roughly 11,000 BTC while the price tested traders' realized-price resistance near $76,800. Onchain data indicate large holders moved coins to exchanges.

Bitcoin traded above $76,000 on Tuesday, its strongest level since early February, then slipped to about $74,800 as it approached the realized-price band at $76,800. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote that the $76,800 band has capped prior relief rallies. “This band capped the January 2026 bear market rally precisely at this level before prices reversed lower,” he added. Moreno identified a lower band near $67,600 as primary near-term support if the resistance holds.

Hourly deposits to exchanges rose to around 11,000 BTC, the highest rate since late December 2025, the firm reported. CryptoQuant flagged the surge as a near-term warning because investors often move assets to exchanges when preparing to sell.

Large holders accounted for most of the inflows. The mean exchange deposit increased to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since July 2024, and several individual deposits to Binance exceeded 1,000 BTC. The share of large deposits jumped from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days. CryptoQuant noted that readings above 40% large-deposit share have historically coincided with elevated short-term selling pressure. In a comparable episode in March 2026, hourly inflows reached roughly 9,000 BTC with a heavy concentration of large deposits, which preceded a short-term price correction.

Daily realized profits stood near $500 million, below the $1 billion daily threshold CryptoQuant uses to mark significant profit realization in prior bear-market rallies. Moreno wrote that if bitcoin sustains above $76,000 or moves toward the $76,800 realized-price level, daily realized profits could rise to and above $1 billion, which would add selling pressure and increase the chance of a rally stalling or reversing.

The firm said the data do not predict a specific price move. Traders and investors commonly monitor realized-price bands and exchange inflows as indicators of where holders may be close to breakeven and more likely to liquidate positions.