Bitcoin Tops $82,000 as Long Negative Funding Run Persists

Bitcoin traded above $82,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in more than three months, according to a report from K33 Research.

K33 reported a 67-day streak of negative 30-day average funding rates for perpetual futures, the longest such run this decade. K33 noted the streak surpassed the previous stretch from March 15 to May 16, 2020.

The 30-day average funding rate reflects periodic payments between holders of perpetual futures contracts that keep futures prices aligned with the spot market. A negative funding rate means short positions are paying long positions, indicating heavier bearish positioning in derivatives markets.

K33 analyzed funding regimes and spot returns from October 2018 through May 26. Purchases made during negative 30-day funding-rate periods had win rates of 83% to 96% across holding periods from 30 to 360 days. Randomly timed purchases over the same sample period had win rates of 55% to 70%.

Median and average returns following buys in negative funding regimes exceeded returns from random entry by factors ranging from about 1.84x to 6.27x, the report found. The analysis also showed average maximum drawdowns after purchases in negative funding windows were smaller and investors spent less time below their purchase price.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, wrote that “historically, sustained periods of negative funding have often occurred near market bottoms” and that the data “consistently lead to strong forward returns, with win rates higher compared to buying on any random day.”

K33 said its analysis is based on actual funding payments in derivatives markets rather than chart-based technical signals. The report does not provide trading advice and limits its findings to historical outcomes tied to funding-rate regimes.