Bernstein Reiterates $67 Target After Figure Q1 Surge

Figure Technology Solutions reported first-quarter 2026 loan originations of $2.9 billion, a 113% increase from a year earlier. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating and a $67 price target, which implies roughly 72% upside from the stock’s $38.97 price.

The company posted adjusted net revenue of $167 million for Q1, up 92% year-over-year and about 6% above consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, about a 50% margin and slightly above the $80 million estimate. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.18, about 9% below estimates, reflecting $26 million in stock-based compensation, down from $40 million in the prior quarter. Management guided second-quarter loan volumes to a range of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, roughly 35% higher than Q1.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted April originations of about $1.34 billion, a monthly record for the company. The firm highlighted Figure Connect, the company’s blockchain-based credit origination marketplace, which accounted for 56% of total loan volumes in the quarter, up from 54% the prior quarter. The distribution partner network on Connect expanded to 387 partners, with new additions including Flagstar Bank.

Net take-rate for the business remained 3.8% even as first-lien loans rose to 20% of total volumes. Bernstein values FIGR at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA. The firm has adjusted its price target since initiating coverage in October 2025; the target was $54 at initiation, rose to $72 in January 2026, and was set at $67 in March 2026. Figure completed its IPO in September 2025 at $36 a share with an initial valuation above $7 billion. As of Tuesday, FIGR shares traded at $38.97, down about 4.6% year-to-date, and the 52-week range is $25.01 to $78.00.

Other reported platform metrics included $598 million in supply for YLDS, the company’s SEC-registered yield-bearing security token backed by short-term Treasurys, up about 80% quarter-over-quarter. Democratized Prime matched balances reached $368 million, up roughly 79% quarter-over-quarter. Small business loan originations totaled $60 million in Q1. The company said it is expanding beyond home equity into auto lending and additional mortgage categories.

Bernstein disclosed recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and said it expects to seek additional compensation. The lead analyst maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.