Bernstein: Bitcoin miners set to benefit from $90B AI deals

In a client note Tuesday titled “Bitcoin Miners: Google-Blackstone Neocloud news – Follow the Gigawatts,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani assigned Outperform ratings to IREN, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Core Scientific and kept MARA Holdings at Market Perform. The firm listed price targets against Monday’s closing prices: IREN $100 (closed $50.46), Riot $25 (closed $23.18), CleanSpark $24 (closed $13.44), Core Scientific $24 (closed $23.57) and MARA $23 (closed $12.18).

Bernstein reported more than $90 billion in announced AI data-center deals that cover roughly 3.7 gigawatts of capacity. The note said bitcoin miners collectively control more than 27 gigawatts of planned power capacity, positioning them as counterparties to large-scale compute demand. The analysts noted that securing a single gigawatt of power in some U.S. markets can take close to 50 months.

The research highlighted several transactions and plans. IREN has a planned five-gigawatt AI compute buildout using Nvidia’s AI factory architecture and a roughly $3.4 billion AI cloud agreement tied to GPU deployment commitments. Riot has a co-location arrangement with AMD that covers 50 megawatts with an option to expand to 200 megawatts. The note referenced broader partnerships linking miners, hyperscalers, cloud operators and chip providers through arrangements for GPU capacity.

Bernstein outlined regulatory and execution challenges that could limit adoption. The analysts pointed to lengthy interconnection queues, zoning and permitting requirements, environmental scrutiny and local grid capacity constraints across multiple states. They also flagged sector-wide risks related to high power consumption, environmental opposition, supply-chain issues and financing hurdles for large capital projects.

The note called out company-specific risks. For Core Scientific, reallocating power from bitcoin mining to AI compute could cause missed gains if a bitcoin market upswing occurs while AI buildouts slow. IREN’s AI cloud expansion is capital-intensive and depends on access to flexible financing. Riot’s concentration in Texas creates exposure to potential state-level policy changes such as taxation or operational restrictions. MARA’s reliance on external power partners presents a production risk if partners redirect capacity to other commercial uses.

The analysts wrote that miners ‘still have an edge' due to existing access to grid-connected power and large sites already in operation or development, while cautioning that execution and regulatory matters are material risks. Bernstein disclosed that Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies and that certain firm affiliates act as market makers or liquidity providers in debt securities of Riot Platforms.