Bank of America: Expect Higher U.S. Gas Prices This Summer

Bank of America analysts warned in a client note that U.S. motorists should expect higher gasoline prices nationwide this summer, with average pump costs likely to rise between late spring and early fall.

The analysts pointed to three main drivers: stronger travel demand as people take summer road trips, scheduled refinery maintenance that lowers fuel output, and tight global oil markets that have kept crude prices elevated.

Each spring, refineries switch to summer-grade gasoline blends required by state rules. That change raises production costs and can temporarily reduce available supply during the peak driving months.

The bank's analysis referenced recent data showing seasonal draws on gasoline inventories, which shrink short-term buffers. Timing of refinery turnarounds can compress supplies further if demand strengthens.

Regional price differences are expected. Areas with limited refining capacity or logistical constraints, including some coastal markets and states that rely on distant refineries, may see larger increases than inland regions near major refineries.

Bank of America added that risks rise if global supply disruptions occur, such as production choices by major exporters or unexpected outages in key producing regions. Domestic oil output has recovered from earlier pandemic declines but has not fully offset international market shifts.

The advisory noted daily retail prices will still vary by local taxes, transportation costs and retail competition. It recommended consumers factor potential higher fuel spending into household budgets for the coming months.